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  • France: The Reform Momentum Stays Alive After The Yellow Vest Crisis download

    White papers 25 July 2019

    Other dominant factors within the fixed income environment are the increased role of politics, the still present short-term downside risks regarding the economy, the high level of debt globally, and, moving towards the long term, rising acknowledgment of climate and societal-related risks.

  • Revisiting Fixed Income Opportunities After The European Institution Appointments download

    White papers 15 July 2019

    The appointment of Christine Lagarde as President of the ECB and Ursula Von der Leyen as President of the European Commission are undoubtedly among the best possible compromises, because these are two women of great experience, both very much in favour of strengthening the European Union.

  • Italy: A Long And Winding Road download

    White papers 4 July 2019

    Arm-wrestling within the Italian government and between Italy and Brussels to find a solution to the Italian budget and avoid the Excessive Deficit Procedure. After Italy’s exit from a technical recession in H2 2018, economic data are still pointing to weakness, and many risks loom in the second half of this year.

  • Turkey: Inflation, Exchange Rate’s Pass-Through And Monetary Policy download

    White papers 25 June 2019

    Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months.

  • Three Themes For European Equities To Be Back In Focus download

    White papers 21 June 2019

    Volatility is here to stay. Markets are hostages of very volatile news flow. Trade-related anxiety is driving the swing (pessimism of a broken deal between China and US led to a correction in May while the renewed hope of a partial deal brought equity markets back to yearly highs in June).

  • Investing in the changing shape of Emerging Markets weblink

    White papers 18 June 2019

    The emerging markets (EM) universe has experienced significant changes in the last decade with the further addition of investible countries (ie China A shares in 2018), the surge in the size of EM bond markets and the further development of the local currency bond markets.

  • European elections: not a game changer, opportunities from divergences download

    White papers 28 May 2019

    The results are broadly in line with what opinion polls had indicated, although with a slight “pro-institution” surprise. Key takeaways are, first, a decline in the votes for the two large political groups which are the social-democrats and the Christian-democrats or moderate right; these two parties had, since 1979, commanded a combined majority in the European Parliament, and this is now over.

  • European Equities: What Impacts In The Event Of A Tariff War With The United States? download

    White papers 3 May 2019

    While the threat of a large-scale Sino-US tariff war appears to be receding, the US could now switch its focus to its trade deficits with the European Union. With this in mind, we wanted to find out which European equities, in terms of country, sector or individual companies, would be hardest hit by a trade conflict.

  • Spain: Forming A Coalition Will Take Time, But The Picture Looks Benign For Investors download

    White papers 1 May 2019

    The outcome: The ruling Socialist Party of Pedro Sánchez came first, however without an absolute majority in Parliament. The new, far-right, VOX party also entered Parliament.

  • Italy: no short-term confrontation with the EU, but uncertainty in the mid-term. download

    White papers 24 April 2019

    In the new forecasts for the 2020 budget and beyond from the Italian government (from the latest economic blueprint, of 9 April: “The Stability and Growth Path, SGP”), its economic projections come much closer to consensus than previous ones, pointing to weaker GDP growth.

  • Persistence And Skill In The Performance Of Mutual Fund Families download

    White papers 26 March 2019

    Prior research has shown that decisions made at fund family level can account for a substantial portion of the performance of the individual active fund managers in the family.

  • Optimal Allocation in the S&P 600 under Size-Driven Illiquidity download

    White papers 26 March 2019

    A number of empirical studies have investigated how mutual funds do react to incoming financial resources. As long as liquidity constraints are narrow, fund managers tend to upscale already existing positions without looking for new investment opportunities.

  • Brexit: an agreement is now more likely, but be aware of a no deal risk, not priced in download

    White papers 12 March 2019

    Developments and scenarios ahead: This is probably the most decisive week for Brexit and the situation is still rapidly evolving. Last night, Mrs. May and Mr. Juncker announced an agreement on the most controversial part of the Brexit deal: the Irish border backstop. This agreement is aimed at getting the U.K. Parliament to accept the Brexit deal previously rejected in January.

  • A dovish ECB, a little relief for the banking sector download

    White papers 8 March 2019

    The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new series of TLTROs starting in September 2019 and changed its forward guidance, with a commitment not to hike rates this year.

  • Brexit Deal Voted Down: What Happens Now? download

    White papers 17 January 2019

    Developments and scenarios ahead: The Brexit deal defeat in Parliament was expected, but the size of the loss was not – the result of 432 votes against versus 202 for was quite a surprise. In light of the larger-than-expected scale of the defeat, we have revised upward the probability of a no-deal Brexit (20% vs. 15% previously).

  • The Alpha And Beta Of ESG Investing download

    White papers 14 January 2019

    With the rising awareness around ESG issues worldwide, institutional investors have started to massively look into responsible investment. The latter has grown substantially in Europe and in North America in the past 5 years.

  • Brexit Muddle-Through Towards The Approaching The Confidence Vote download

    White papers 8 January 2019

    The newsflow concerning Brexit has been quite intense since the UK government was able to secure an agreement with the EU on 25 November 2018. The most notable developments have been: 4 December: The “Grieve” amendment, giving MPs more influence regarding the Brexit process if a Brexit deal is voted down. 10 December: The decision of the UK government to postpone the ratification of the deal by the UK Parliament as it was bound to fail by a very large margin (a ...

  • Why Investors Should Care About French “Yellow Vests” Protest weblink

    White papers 12 December 2018

    The Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) are a largely spontaneous protest movement that emerged in France, in October. With no declared political affiliation, they called for lower taxes and a higher level of social transfers and public services.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy Special Edition: Outlook 2019 weblink

    White papers 6 December 2018

    With late cycle features continuing to materialise and a higher level of vulnerability developing due to the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, 2019 will require investors to embrace a more prudent approach, despite the benign global economic outlook.

  • Brexit: Where do we stand and what should investors expect? weblink

    White papers 26 November 2018

    Where we stand and possible scenarios ahead: After the EU approval of Brexit deal, we are going to pass through some tough times until the UK parliamentary vote on Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in December.

  • Italy moves towards an Excessive Deficit Procedure, but a change of attitude is in the air weblink

    White papers 26 November 2018

    This large and unprecedented deliberate breach of the so-called “preventive arm” measures therefore calls for moving Italy into the “corrective arm” of the Stability and Growth Pact.

  • Central European countries: Outlook to 2020 weblink

    White papers 6 November 2018

    Global growth resynchronised in 2017. In this particularly bullish environment, Central European countries “outperformed” with growth rates of between 4% and 6%.

  • Bavarian elections: European political landscape continues to evolve weblink

    White papers 16 October 2018

    The election result in Bavaria marked the defeat of the conservative CSU, which lost its absolute majority, and of its junior ally, the SPD.

  • Italian budget proposal under scrutiny weblink

    White papers 28 September 2018

    The key points of the budget law. The Italian Government negatively surprised the markets by announcing a substantially increased budget deficit target for 2019-2021 to 2.4% in a move that could undermine the potential to reduce the Italian debt burden (130% of GDP) in the coming years.

  • European Equity: Combining value and quality in this new market phase weblink

    White papers 20 September 2018

    We believe we have entered a mature stage of the financial cycle amid central bank monetary policy normalisation (more advanced in the US) and decelerating economic growth globally. Protectionist dynamics are also features of this phase of the cycle, while the US fiscal expansion and a capex revival are all forces working to extend it.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2018 weblink

    White papers 19 September 2018

    Italian budget discussions are going to intensify as the 27th of September approaches, date of publication of the document outlining the new budget law and when there should be more clarity on the key economic projections and deficit targets.

  • Turkey shakes summer thin markets, but contagion risk is contained weblink

    White papers 14 August 2018

    The domestic boom has been financed by private debt (mainly external debt). Well before this week’s crisis, Turkey was the most vulnerable country in our EM ranking...

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018 weblink

    White papers 1 August 2018

    The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.

  • Global Investment Views: August 2018 weblink

    White papers 27 July 2018

    Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure.

  • Pacte Law: what changes lie ahead for savings in France weblink

    White papers 12 July 2018

    The Pacte Law, presented on June 18, 2018 at the French Council of Ministers, should come into force no later than January 2020, after a period of parliamentary debates and the publication of implementing decrees.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2018 weblink

    White papers 6 July 2018

    Since the beginning of the year, emerging market risky assets have become more volatile.

  • ECB: Short term rates anchored weblink

    White papers 15 June 2018

    According to the ECB projections, the GDP expansion will remain above potential for the next two years, driven by both domestic investment and household consumption. Inflation is revised up, albeit modestly.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: June 2018 weblink

    White papers 14 June 2018

    Go the extra mile, but check the exits...

  • Italy: Troubled waters and complex challenges ahead but no Italexit on the roadmap! weblink

    White papers 14 June 2018

    In just a few days, investors have shifted from perhaps excessive complacency to excess pessimism about Italian politics.

  • Italy: Fundamentals are the compass amid political twists weblink

    White papers 5 June 2018

    A new Government: After three months of deadlock, 5Star Movement and the League agreed on a redesigned Government formation.

  • France: Significant promises kept, but the most crucial reforms will take time weblink

    White papers 31 May 2018

    One year on from his election victory the French president has already lived up to some of his campaign promises, most visibly regarding labour market regulation and taxation, actions that have generally been welcomed by international financial commentators.

  • Italy towards new elections weblink

    White papers 28 May 2018

    On May 27th, the designated Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte gave up his mandate to form a Government.

  • Italian political transition following unclear paths. Wise to wait and see weblink

    White papers 22 May 2018

    The political situation in Italy is still uncertain, with some indication, but no formal appointment of the Prime Minister. We may witness a somewhat unusual state of affairs over the next few days, a sort of “technical government” of no parliamentary extraction, subject to a political contract.

  • Italy on watch list weblink

    White papers 15 May 2018

    Political uncertainty in Italy remains high. The probability of a Government formed between the 5Star Movement (M5S) and the League (the most voted party in the centre right coalition) has increased in recent days, but the process of government formation is not straightforward.

  • Fed vs. ECB. Towards a stronger decoupling of monetary policies? weblink

    White papers 9 May 2018

    US and European economies both continue to expand but at different paces. While US growth will likely pick up this year, boosted by an expansionist fiscal policy, the Eurozone cycle probably peaked last year.

  • ECB: dovish tone and calm markets - but flexibility needed with volatility ahead weblink

    White papers 27 April 2018

    The overall stance is still broadly accommodative and aims to confirm the consensus view.

  • Global Investment Views: May 2018 weblink

    White papers 24 April 2018

    Charting an investment path through the fog...

  • ECB: Still dovish, but fixed income investors should be ready for a new phase

    White papers 9 March 2018

    What are your views on ECB policy going forward?

  • Complex Italian election outcome should not threaten the positive European story

    White papers 5 March 2018

    The electoral outcome (the very positive result of Five Star Movement, now the largest party, and of the Lega Nord in the center right coalition) was not priced by the market.

  • What the recent market move means for European credit

    White papers 19 February 2018

    Not a cycle reversal. We qualify the recent price actions as corrections, not as a cycle reversal. This position is mainly supported by past performance: profit taking is appealing when volatility increases.

  • The improvement of peripheral bonds’ fundamentals has accelerated

    White papers 16 February 2018

    Two events pushed down Eurozone sovereign spreads in 2017: the French presidential election in April & May, which dissipated investors’ fears about  Eurosceptic movements, and the announcement on 26 October of a smaller-than-expected reduction in ECB’s QE for 2018 (monthly purchases lowered from € 60 bn to €30bn).

  • Brexit: How the future trade agreement is going to shape UK financial assets

    White papers 14 February 2018

    This year will be crucial for the future of United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union following Brexit. The next round of negotiation talks will take place between February and March, and will focus on defining a two-year transition agreement.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: February 2018

    White papers 9 February 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

  • Global Investment Views: February 2018

    White papers 26 January 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

  • ECB: eyes on the Euro

    White papers 26 January 2018

    What are the main messages coming from the ECB meeting?

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