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  • G20: Market Relief, Eyes Now On Central Bank's Execution download

    White papers 3 July 2019

    The worst case scenario of further trade escalation has been averted. The G20 meeting over the weekend resumed the negotiations between China and US on trade, after the tariffs increase in May on$200bn of Chinese products, and the consequent Chinese retaliation,which both put financial markets under pressure and increased downside risk to the economic outlook.

  • How to differentiate emerging countries? New Approaches For Classification And Typology download

    White papers 1 July 2019

    Once accepted the idea that the emerging world may behave like a block in period of crises (as the group of advanced countries also does), one must wonder whether one should go beyond that and consider that the emerging world deserves better: the wide divergence between countries, the health of some countries (sometimes better than some advanced countries) simply mean that it does not make sense to view the “emerging world” as a whole, as a block, but as well-defined, specific and homogeneous ..

  • Emerging Markets: Vulnerability And Contagion Risks... Fragile Vs. Anti-Fragile Countries download

    White papers 1 July 2019

    This article is aimed at analysing contagion within the emerging world in the past decades, and at presenting investment strategies to limit negative effects of contagion and / or to benefit from it.

  • Global Investment Views - July 2019 download

    White papers 26 June 2019

    The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB).

  • Turkey: Inflation, Exchange Rate’s Pass-Through And Monetary Policy download

    White papers 25 June 2019

    Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months.

  • Investing in the changing shape of Emerging Markets weblink

    White papers 18 June 2019

    The emerging markets (EM) universe has experienced significant changes in the last decade with the further addition of investible countries (ie China A shares in 2018), the surge in the size of EM bond markets and the further development of the local currency bond markets.

  • Economic Crisis And Political Risk Batter Argentina. Way Out Or Opportunity? download

    White papers 13 May 2019

    The economy is facing severe stagflation. Monetary and fiscal policy are extremely tight, consumer and investor confidence is low, and inflation is proving very sticky amidst wage indexation. Whilst we view the fiscal and monetary mix to be appropriate given Argentina’s macro challenges, it is possible that these measures may not be able to stabilise the economy in time for the elections.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2019 download

    White papers 2 May 2019

    Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of emerging markets have also been very strong.

  • Emerging Market Green Bonds - Report 2018 download

    White papers 29 April 2019

    In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urged the world to intensify its efforts to combat climate change by meeting the goal of the 2016 Paris Agreement to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

  • Global Investment Views - May 2019 download

    White papers 25 April 2019

    Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of emerging markets have also been very strong.

  • H1 2019 - Emerging Markets Charts & Views: Seek opportunities, but be aware of short-term volatility download

    White papers 13 March 2019

    Emerging markets (EM) started 2019 on a strong footing and, as a result, some excessive valuation gaps have been partially closed. Yet, we continue to see opportunities in all EM segments (equity, bonds in hard currency and in local currency) with a medium to long-term view.

  • Time to increase risk exposure: start with emerging markets and credit download

    White papers 29 January 2019

    The excess of pessimism at the end of 2018 resulted in a sharp decline in financial markets and renewed volatility. According to our analysis, market participants priced in twice the slowdown risk that economic fundamentals justified.

  • Global Investment Views - February 2019 download

    White papers 23 January 2019

    After a tough December, which led to an abrupt valuation reset, risk assets rebounded in the first weeks of the year, boosted by a market-sympathetic turn in Fed rhetoric and an increased optimism on trade negotiations. As the current reasons for optimism should be confirmed, we believe it is time to re-approach the areas of risk assets where the correction has brought value back, especially in emerging markets.

  • Investment Perspectives For A New Regime Of Returns download

    White papers 14 January 2019

    After two years of positive performance across the board, with almost no asset class in negative territory, 2018 is marking a change of direction, with an unprecedented percentage of asset classes in red. This may cause a sense of uncertainty among investors facing uncharted waters ahead.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - January 2019 download

    White papers 9 January 2019

    Investors are facing an unsettled environment. For 2019 we think it will be key to look at three areas: 1. From economic deceleration to where?  2. Fed pausing or continuing rate rises? 3. EMs: perfect storm or a recovery story?

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy Special Edition: Outlook 2019 weblink

    White papers 6 December 2018

    With late cycle features continuing to materialise and a higher level of vulnerability developing due to the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, 2019 will require investors to embrace a more prudent approach, despite the benign global economic outlook.

  • Global Investment Views: December 2018 weblink

    White papers 28 November 2018

    This year has proven to be challenging for portfolio construction, as well as regarding returns. To put this into perspective, for 2009-17, our analysis shows that each year, on average, 76% of major asset classes (including different regional government bonds, equity, inflation-linked, currency and commodities) recorded positive performances.

  • Brazilian elections: lights and shadows on the horizon weblink

    White papers 31 October 2018

    The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: October 2018 weblink

    White papers 8 October 2018

    The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year.

  • Global Investment Views: October 2018 weblink

    White papers 28 September 2018

    The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey, Argentina and South Africa) contributed to the almost indiscriminate repricing of EM assets, starting with plummeting EM currencies.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2018 weblink

    White papers 19 September 2018

    Italian budget discussions are going to intensify as the 27th of September approaches, date of publication of the document outlining the new budget law and when there should be more clarity on the key economic projections and deficit targets.

  • Turkey shakes summer thin markets, but contagion risk is contained weblink

    White papers 14 August 2018

    The domestic boom has been financed by private debt (mainly external debt). Well before this week’s crisis, Turkey was the most vulnerable country in our EM ranking...

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018 weblink

    White papers 1 August 2018

    The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.

  • Global Investment Views: August 2018 weblink

    White papers 27 July 2018

    Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2018 weblink

    White papers 6 July 2018

    Since the beginning of the year, emerging market risky assets have become more volatile.

  • Protectionism intensifies: country and sector selection to mitigate its effects weblink

    White papers 4 July 2018

    As a base case, we expect limited tariffs will be implemented on different fronts with relatively controlled macro impacts while talks continue. Although talks have become more contentious, we do still see space for negotiation among the various parties. This is the main difference vs a proper “trade war”.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: June 2018 weblink

    White papers 14 June 2018

    Go the extra mile, but check the exits...

  • MSCI China A-share inclusion along the way of China’s transition to quality growth weblink

    White papers 1 June 2018

    In June 2017, MSCI announced the partial inclusion of China’s domestically traded, yuan-denominated stocks, or so-called A-shares to MSCI China, MSCI Emerging Markets, and MSCI All Country indices, which is to be implemented from June 2018.

  • Global Investment Views: May 2018 weblink

    White papers 24 April 2018

    Charting an investment path through the fog...

  • Emerging Markets: how to unlock the next wave of returns weblink

    White papers 30 March 2018

    The recent increase in stock market volatility raised awareness among investors regarding the vulnerabilities in financial markets created by market complacency and associated with the extended phase of exceptional central bank monetary stimulus.

  • Global Investment Views: March 2018

    White papers 2 March 2018

    A wake-up call for markets. Remain vigilant.

  • Emerging Markets: How to unlock the next wave of returns

    White papers 12 February 2018

    After years of buoyant market conditions that have driven strong market performance across the board, investors are questioning for how long this “Goldilocks” regime can last and which investment areas will continue to offer opportunities in the near future.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: February 2018

    White papers 9 February 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

  • Quarterly Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q1 - 2018

    White papers 6 February 2018

    The robust global economic growth experienced in 2017 is expected to continue into 2018, albeit with some notable exceptions such as UK. Such growth is to be reflected in ever higher equity price levels and thus expected to become costlier with respect to the most recent valuations.

  • Global Investment Views: February 2018

    White papers 26 January 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: January 2018

    White papers 11 January 2018

    Investors have enjoyed a quiet year in 2017, with few bumpier spots, overall record-low volatility and nice returns. Moving into 2018, the temptation for risk assets is still high.

  • Global Investment Views: January 2018

    White papers 5 January 2018

    Investors have enjoyed a quiet year in 2017, with few bumpier spots, overall record-low volatility and nice returns. Moving into 2018, the temptation for risk assets is still high. The economic environment remains strong.

  • CHINA: 19th party congress and beyond

    White papers 20 November 2017

    What are the key takeaways from the 19th Party Congress?

  • Opportunities ahead in Asia EMs, despite increasing geopolitical tensions

    White papers 11 October 2017

    EM Asian economies outlook has been improving and it’s expected to mildly improve further. We closely monitor geopolitical risk in the region.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2017

    White papers 19 September 2017

    Find the latest edition of Amundi Research team’s monthly publication.

  • Global Investment Views: July 2017

    White papers 1 August 2017

    CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee...

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: June 2017

    White papers 30 June 2017

    Can global trade, which has declined sharply over the past decade, contribute to accelerating growth with consumption, investment and fiscal and tax policies?

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: January 2017

    White papers 16 January 2017

    As 2017 begins, it is helpful to take stock of the key issues coming into focus.

  • Cross Asset: 2017 and beyond

    White papers 22 November 2016

    In an ultra-low or even negative interest rate environment, maintaining an overweight stance in emerging market assets (equities, debt and currencies), in credit (vs. government bonds) still makes sense, while continuing our search for yield and spreads.

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