Amundi Asset Management

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  • France: The Reform Momentum Stays Alive After The Yellow Vest Crisis download

    White papers 25 July 2019

    Other dominant factors within the fixed income environment are the increased role of politics, the still present short-term downside risks regarding the economy, the high level of debt globally, and, moving towards the long term, rising acknowledgment of climate and societal-related risks.

  • Revisiting Fixed Income Opportunities After The European Institution Appointments download

    White papers 15 July 2019

    The appointment of Christine Lagarde as President of the ECB and Ursula Von der Leyen as President of the European Commission are undoubtedly among the best possible compromises, because these are two women of great experience, both very much in favour of strengthening the European Union.

  • Italy: A Long And Winding Road download

    White papers 4 July 2019

    Arm-wrestling within the Italian government and between Italy and Brussels to find a solution to the Italian budget and avoid the Excessive Deficit Procedure. After Italy’s exit from a technical recession in H2 2018, economic data are still pointing to weakness, and many risks loom in the second half of this year.

  • Turkey: Inflation, Exchange Rate’s Pass-Through And Monetary Policy download

    White papers 25 June 2019

    Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months.

  • European elections: not a game changer, opportunities from divergences download

    White papers 28 May 2019

    The results are broadly in line with what opinion polls had indicated, although with a slight “pro-institution” surprise. Key takeaways are, first, a decline in the votes for the two large political groups which are the social-democrats and the Christian-democrats or moderate right; these two parties had, since 1979, commanded a combined majority in the European Parliament, and this is now over.

  • Spain: Forming A Coalition Will Take Time, But The Picture Looks Benign For Investors download

    White papers 1 May 2019

    The outcome: The ruling Socialist Party of Pedro Sánchez came first, however without an absolute majority in Parliament. The new, far-right, VOX party also entered Parliament.

  • Italy: no short-term confrontation with the EU, but uncertainty in the mid-term. download

    White papers 24 April 2019

    In the new forecasts for the 2020 budget and beyond from the Italian government (from the latest economic blueprint, of 9 April: “The Stability and Growth Path, SGP”), its economic projections come much closer to consensus than previous ones, pointing to weaker GDP growth.

  • Brexit: an agreement is now more likely, but be aware of a no deal risk, not priced in download

    White papers 12 March 2019

    Developments and scenarios ahead: This is probably the most decisive week for Brexit and the situation is still rapidly evolving. Last night, Mrs. May and Mr. Juncker announced an agreement on the most controversial part of the Brexit deal: the Irish border backstop. This agreement is aimed at getting the U.K. Parliament to accept the Brexit deal previously rejected in January.

  • A dovish ECB, a little relief for the banking sector download

    White papers 8 March 2019

    The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new series of TLTROs starting in September 2019 and changed its forward guidance, with a commitment not to hike rates this year.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy Special Edition: Outlook 2019 weblink

    White papers 6 December 2018

    With late cycle features continuing to materialise and a higher level of vulnerability developing due to the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, 2019 will require investors to embrace a more prudent approach, despite the benign global economic outlook.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2018 weblink

    White papers 19 September 2018

    Italian budget discussions are going to intensify as the 27th of September approaches, date of publication of the document outlining the new budget law and when there should be more clarity on the key economic projections and deficit targets.

  • Turkey shakes summer thin markets, but contagion risk is contained weblink

    White papers 14 August 2018

    The domestic boom has been financed by private debt (mainly external debt). Well before this week’s crisis, Turkey was the most vulnerable country in our EM ranking...

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018 weblink

    White papers 1 August 2018

    The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.

  • Global Investment Views: August 2018 weblink

    White papers 27 July 2018

    Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2018 weblink

    White papers 6 July 2018

    Since the beginning of the year, emerging market risky assets have become more volatile.

  • ECB: Short term rates anchored weblink

    White papers 15 June 2018

    According to the ECB projections, the GDP expansion will remain above potential for the next two years, driven by both domestic investment and household consumption. Inflation is revised up, albeit modestly.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: June 2018 weblink

    White papers 14 June 2018

    Go the extra mile, but check the exits...

  • Italy towards new elections weblink

    White papers 28 May 2018

    On May 27th, the designated Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte gave up his mandate to form a Government.

  • ECB: dovish tone and calm markets - but flexibility needed with volatility ahead weblink

    White papers 27 April 2018

    The overall stance is still broadly accommodative and aims to confirm the consensus view.

  • Global Investment Views: May 2018 weblink

    White papers 24 April 2018

    Charting an investment path through the fog...

  • ECB: Still dovish, but fixed income investors should be ready for a new phase

    White papers 9 March 2018

    What are your views on ECB policy going forward?

  • What the recent market move means for European credit

    White papers 19 February 2018

    Not a cycle reversal. We qualify the recent price actions as corrections, not as a cycle reversal. This position is mainly supported by past performance: profit taking is appealing when volatility increases.

  • The improvement of peripheral bonds’ fundamentals has accelerated

    White papers 16 February 2018

    Two events pushed down Eurozone sovereign spreads in 2017: the French presidential election in April & May, which dissipated investors’ fears about  Eurosceptic movements, and the announcement on 26 October of a smaller-than-expected reduction in ECB’s QE for 2018 (monthly purchases lowered from € 60 bn to €30bn).

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: February 2018

    White papers 9 February 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

  • Global Investment Views: February 2018

    White papers 26 January 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

  • ECB: eyes on the Euro

    White papers 26 January 2018

    What are the main messages coming from the ECB meeting?

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: January 2018

    White papers 11 January 2018

    Investors have enjoyed a quiet year in 2017, with few bumpier spots, overall record-low volatility and nice returns. Moving into 2018, the temptation for risk assets is still high.

  • This Month's topic: CSPP leading the late phase of ECB QE

    White papers 11 January 2018

    The ECB has already started “tapering” less corporate purchases than other programmes since April 2017, the month which saw the reduction from €80bn to €60bn of monthly purchases.

  • Global Investment Views: January 2018

    White papers 5 January 2018

    Investors have enjoyed a quiet year in 2017, with few bumpier spots, overall record-low volatility and nice returns. Moving into 2018, the temptation for risk assets is still high. The economic environment remains strong.

  • Investment takeaways from ECB year-end meeting

    White papers 17 December 2017

    ECB growth expectations: The Eurozone is ending 2017 on surprisingly strong footing, resulting in a significant upward revision for GDP growth in 2018 (from 1.8 to 2.3%).

  • What higher bond yields may mean for corporate bond valuations

    White papers 29 September 2017

    Both US and European credit markets have delivered a fairly positive yearto- date performance; supported by falling political risk, excess returns versus underlying government bonds proved to be particularly strong for EUR corporate bonds in the second quarter.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2017

    White papers 19 September 2017

    Find the latest edition of Amundi Research team’s monthly publication.

  • Investment Talks: ECB on hold, but more details on what's next

    White papers 19 September 2017

    The perspective of a turnaround in monetary policy is not going to vanish, and the tapering topic will be back probably sooner than later.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2017

    White papers 1 August 2017

    FOMC members plan to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet this year and gave recently some precisions about how they will do.

  • Global Investment Views: July 2017

    White papers 1 August 2017

    CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee...

  • Our Convictions: June 2017

    White papers 7 July 2017

    What’s new in recent weeks?

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: June 2017

    White papers 30 June 2017

    Can global trade, which has declined sharply over the past decade, contribute to accelerating growth with consumption, investment and fiscal and tax policies?

  • French Presidential Elections: OAT/Bund spread - recent trends, equilibrium value and perspectives

    White papers 12 May 2017

    Interest rate differentials between France and Germany rose sharply in the months leading up to the French presidential elections and even reached levels never seen since 2011.

  • Our Convictions: May 2017

    White papers 9 May 2017

    We have repeatedly mentioned how financial markets have tended to overestimate the risks of European elections, underestimate the fears of the Brexit and overestimate hopes on Trump’s economic policy.

  • French Presidential Elections: Macron president - risks disappear...Back to fundamentals

    White papers 8 May 2017

    The second round of the presidential election provided the name of the winner: E. Macron is the next president of the French Republic (66% of the votes).

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: May 2017

    White papers 5 May 2017

    The purpose of this article is to present the state of affairs on the polls, the priorities of the French and to recall the program of the two candidates as well as the major issues: to obtain a parliamentary majority for E. Macron, to obtain a parliamentary majority and to clarify her position on Europe for Marine Le Pen.

  • French Presidential Elections: French public debt - liquid and safe

    White papers 4 April 2017

    France’s debt-to-GDP ratio stabilized until 2015, slightly under the threshold of 100%.

  • Our Convictions: March 2017

    White papers 16 March 2017

    No major changes on the macroeconomic front last month, but, rather, a confirmation of trends that we had already factored into our asset allocation.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: March 2017

    White papers 15 March 2017

    This month, we present the main issues and scenarios relating to French presidential and legislative elections, as well as the most likely market impacts.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: February 2017

    White papers 16 February 2017

    The rise in long-term  interest rates raises a crucial question: is it a change in regime, a change in level, or a correction within a band of fluctuation that will remain low? The purpose of this article is to answer this question.

  • Our Convictions: February 2017

    White papers 16 February 2017

    The election of D. Trump to the presidency of the United States had several major consequences on the financial markets...

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: January 2017

    White papers 16 January 2017

    As 2017 begins, it is helpful to take stock of the key issues coming into focus.

  • Cross Asset: 2017 and beyond

    White papers 22 November 2016

    In an ultra-low or even negative interest rate environment, maintaining an overweight stance in emerging market assets (equities, debt and currencies), in credit (vs. government bonds) still makes sense, while continuing our search for yield and spreads.

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