Since early 2016, US HY default rates have experienced a sort of “mini –cycle”, peaking at the end of 2016. Nevertheless, the recent rise and fall movements appear mostly commodity driven: default rates would have remained fairly stable if energy and material sectors were excluded from calculations.
In our opinion, investors should dismiss the idea that talks could break down, albeit uncertainties remain. Recent work has focused on details and wording, with the majority of the agreement document having been completed. However, several major issues remain, and on these it is largely up to Trump and XI to make final decisions.
The economy is facing severe stagflation. Monetary and fiscal policy are extremely tight, consumer and investor confidence is low, and inflation is proving very sticky amidst wage indexation. Whilst we view the fiscal and monetary mix to be appropriate given Argentina’s macro challenges, it is possible that these measures may not be able to stabilise the economy in time for the elections.
This chapter studies shareholder activism through environmental, social and governance (ESG) proposals between 1996 and 2015 filed by social responsible funds (“SRI”).
This document includes the perspective of Amundi on asset returns used to build reference portfolios for our institutional clients. A publication issued annually in February covers the major macro and financial foundations of our views, while this one provides a quarterly update of our medium and long-term expected returns by asset class.