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  • The Italian government surprises markets with plan to increase budget deficit weblink

    White papers 28 September 2018

    The “benign” outcome that we and the market expected did not materialise as the Italian government threw down a gauntlet to the European Commission by announcing a spending-prone budget that defied expectations. European investment grade could provide solace in the volatile months ahead.

  • Further Fed tightening could prove too much for the rest of the world weblink

    White papers 27 September 2018

    The Fed will have to strike a more cautious tone, slowing the pace of tightening next year - but we are not there yet.

  • The Fed offers anniversary gift 10 years after global financial crisis weblink

    White papers 27 September 2018

    Following the Fed’s latest hike, the interest rate is higher than the inflation rate for the first time in a decade, finally preserving the purchasing power of savers. What is most interesting now is the Fed’s stated intent to continue normalising rates in 2019, not withstanding overseas grumbles about the impact of a strong US dollar, volatile emerging markets, and political uncertainty.

  • GEAR levels show exuberant US economy weblink

    White papers 25 September 2018

    Our Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-Time (GEAR) show an exuberant US economy, stabilisation in emerging markets and only a slight tick-down in Europe. The data suggest above-trend US growth will stretch into the second half of 2018. If this is accompanied by steadiness elsewhere, it should buoy global markets.

  • India’s fundamentals remain strong despite falling rupee stoking EM fears weblink

    White papers 19 September 2018

    India has been wrestling with higher oil inflation and a strengthening US dollar leading to the rupee selling off and bond yields rising. Mixed narratives on the economy are adding to a sense of confusion. In the long-term, the positives still outweigh the negatives while in the short term, a cyclical recovery is visible and getting broad-based, with a turnaround in infrastructure evident in recent commercial vehicles and construction data.

  • Ten years since the crisis: the risks have changed weblink

    White papers 13 September 2018

    Investors and policy makers have learned their lessons, but we may be looking in the wrong direction for the next dislocations.

  • Global growth: running out of steam weblink

    White papers 13 September 2018

    Global growth for the rest of 2018 should continue slowing, with growth in the US, which has been the engine of the global economy, to start losing momentum into year-end. For China too, the direction of travel is undoubtedly downward. These factors could be the triggers that lead to the next bout of economic and market pain.

  • Optimising emerging market debt exposure weblink

    White papers 13 September 2018

    Emerging market debt can be a powerful diversifier and yield enhancer for global bond portfolios. Yet a common question among investors is how best to allocate to the asset class.

  • Green bonds: Awakening the green giant weblink

    White papers 13 September 2018

    Climate change could be one of the defining problems of the 21st century. Financial markets form part of the solution, but fixed income markets lag in their response.

  • South African land expropriation will exacerbate economic woes and increase volatility weblink

    White papers 13 September 2018

    The decision by South Africa’s ruling ANC party to push ahead with legislation allowing land expropriation without fair compensation will probably exacerbate the country’s economic woes and increase volatility in asset prices.

  • ESG awareness is an enduring legacy of the global financial crisis weblink

    White papers 13 September 2018

    The global financial crisis pushed ESG principles to the forefront, which would not have occurred as rapidly without the catalyst of the crisis.

  • Fidelity Leading Indicator: the trough isn’t here, but could be getting near weblink

    White papers 13 September 2018

    Our proprietary Fidelity Leading Indicator has now registered six straight months in the ‘growth negative and decelerating’ quadrant of its ‘Cycle Tracker’. While this suggests that economic growth will continue to cool into the end of the year, there are signs the indicator is stabilising.

  • As global liquidity tightens, Argentina’s troubles will continue weblink

    White papers 6 September 2018

    Following in Turkey’s footsteps, Argentina is suffering severe currency pressure as foreign investors head for the exit, forcing the central bank to raise interest rates aggressively. Both countries will remain vulnerable because of their significant macro-economic imbalances and political challenges, but all emerging markets are suffering from tightening global liquidity which is unlikely to change.

  • Five entrenched biases in the institutional real estate market weblink

    White papers 6 September 2018

    Professional investors in commercial real estate markets are not immune from investing mistakes rooted in cognitive biases.

  • No exit: Japanese banks continue to feel pain from BOJ’s easy policy weblink

    White papers 6 September 2018

    Japanese banks cannot simply hold their collective breath and wait for the eventual end of the Bank of Japan’s easy monetary policies, because an exit is not coming anytime soon. The country’s banks need to turn the pain they are feeling from the low interest rate environment into a catalyst to transform their businesses.

  • August's Rich Pickings podcast: Could Turkey's turmoils travel? weblink

    White papers 20 August 2018

    Fidelity’s asset allocation team discuss the likelihood of a financial shock from the Turkey crisis spilling over into not only emerging but also developed markets - and where the contagion might be most significant if it does.

  • Tencent as bellwether weblink

    White papers 20 August 2018

    Tencent’s apparent setbacks look to be short term and not structural. The concern for investors is that Tencent’s recent stumble could have broader implications for market sentiment, but a closer look reveals strong fundamentals backed by the company’s wide moat in online gaming and social messaging.

  • US-China trade tensions: Why investors should mind the fundamentals weblink

    White papers 20 August 2018

    Concerns over further fallout from US-China trade tensions will likely continue to weigh on markets in the coming months. But the selloff has been somewhat indiscriminate and investors should mind the fundamentals. At the same time, emerging Asia economies are becoming less dependent on exports and developed markets for growth.

  • Turkey's policy response falls short weblink

    White papers 20 August 2018

    Turkey’s escalating financial crisis has raised concerns over contagion as a flurry of indiscriminate selling spread more broadly across emerging markets in recent days. Equity and currency markets in South Africa, Mexico and Russia all came under pressure, while authorities in Argentina and Indonesia also stepped in to cushion their weakening currencies.

  • Turkey crosses the Rubicon weblink

    White papers 13 August 2018

    Turkish markets continue to spiral downwards with the lira now in a full blown crisis. The recent currency moves are comparable to what Argentina experienced during the second quarter when it received an enormous $50 billion IMF bailout. The solutions to Turkey’s woes - fiscal and monetary intervention, and economic reforms - are actually quite simple, but the question is whether there is the political will to implement them.

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