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  • ‘Yellow vest’ reforms to give a strong boost to French consumers weblink

    White papers 13 December 2018

    While the scenes of rioting and violent protests in France may look dramatic, they are not very widespread. Most of the demonstrations by the so-called yellow-vest protestors are taking place in one small area in Paris. The policy response however has been a positive one. President Emmanuel Macron announced a package of measures that is expected to boost consumers’ purchasing power in 2019.

  • Fidelity Leading Indicator: Deceleration after frontloading on US tariff worries weblink

    White papers 11 December 2018

    Our proprietary FLI now shows a deceleration trend, in contrast with the tentative stabilisation we had seen previously. The signal is once again unambiguously negative. As we had feared, the big swing factor this month was a large slowing in Asia-sensitive ‘Global Trade’ components. The strong ‘front-loading’ of activity to avoid the potential 1 January tariff escalation in the US-China trade war suddenly dropped from the data.

  • Retail's fall from grace: salutary lessons for real estate investors from the nation of shopkeepers weblink

    White papers 5 December 2018

    Bricks-and-mortar retailers are in a fight for survival. Online shopping is transforming retail but at a time when consumption is struggling and the role of consumption in growth is waning.

  • US-China trade truce makes a real deal more likely weblink

    White papers 3 December 2018

    Asian equity markets and US stock futures rallied following US President Donald Trump’s decision to hold off raising trade tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The temporary truce makes a deal more likely, which would ultimately benefit both countries.

  • Bumpy road ahead for US tech stocks weblink

    White papers 28 November 2018

    Close to $1 trillion has been wiped off the combined market value of the FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) from their highs this year so far. And there are reasons to suggest the volatility will continue into 2019. But we certainly don’t believe this is the beginning of the end for the FAANGs.

  • The opportunities in China's mixed-bag economy weblink

    White papers 27 November 2018

    Despite dismal headlines about the US-Sino trade dispute and China’s deleveraging campaign, the situation in the real economy is more of a mixed bag. Increased focus focus shareholder returns and lower valuation premiums mean there are opportunities out there.

  • Don’t wait for good news to buy UK equities weblink

    White papers 21 November 2018

    Amid all the Brexit-related turmoil, the unrelenting negativity that investors are demonstrating towards UK equities is making me feel more and more positive about their prospects for 2019. It might be counterintuitive to think that the UK market could be among the top performers globally in the year that we leave the EU, if indeed that happens, but markets have a way of confounding expectations.

  • Midterms could be good for the US economy weblink

    White papers 7 November 2018

    For once, the outcome of the mid-term elections has gone the way the pollsters and political analysts expected, with the Democrats taking the House of Representatives and the Republicans retaining their marginal hold on the Senate. In what will be seen by some as an inevitable reaction against an unconventional White House, the question is whether there is anything for investors to consider in this result.

  • Merkel’s decision to step down as CDU leader could be positive for Germany weblink

    White papers 30 October 2018

    Angela Merkel’s decision to step down as leader of the ruling CDU party could be positive for Germany, which has seen a stalemate in terms of reforms in the past few years. Consequences for the markets should be small and positive, if there are any at all. For investors, there’s no reason to be nervous. In fact, the recent market volatility has thrown up many attractive investment opportunities in innovative and ...

  • Investing for income: Why a higher headline yield isn't always better weblink

    White papers 25 October 2018

    When investing for income, a higher headline yield isn’t always better. Specialists from our multi-asset and equity income teams discuss different income-generating strategies and why, as always, it’s important that investors understand the associated risks.

  • Falling Markets - the view from Asia weblink

    White papers 25 October 2018

    Negative investor sentiment and high volatility are setting the tone but can also provide opportunities as pockets of value emerge in Asia equity and fixed income markets.

  • Italy budget: The fight has only just begun weblink

    White papers 24 October 2018

    The market has punished Italian equities and government bonds for the country’s debt-laden budget. The bond market, in particular, is pricing in a very negative outlook, and we expect more volatility as negotiations with the European Commission continue.

  • Emerging market GEARs weaken further in September weblink

    White papers 17 October 2018

    Our Gauges of Economic Activity in Real-time (GEAR) show the aggregate emerging market GEAR is now at its lowest level since 2016 after taking another leg lower in September.

  • Trade wars revisited: US politics and impact on China weblink

    White papers 15 October 2018

    The US-China trade war relates to the US electoral cycle and to Trump’s image as ‘deal maker’, and also has a longer-term impact on China, which we believe is often overstated.

  • As market sells off, stay vigilant but calm weblink

    White papers 12 October 2018

    In light of the recent sell-off, it is important to be vigilant and watch the current apparent risks very closely while keeping the focus on stock selection rather than macro forecasting.

  • Risk-off for the US but not for everywhere else weblink

    White papers 11 October 2018

    Given that the medium term outlook for the global economy remains robust and the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus is a sign of a return to more normal conditions, the right response for investors to signs of the US market finally losing momentum is to hunt for value in areas which have already been aggressively sold down.

  • Tech stocks sell off, but fundamentals remain intact weblink

    White papers 11 October 2018

    Technology stocks fared badly amid Wednesday’s broad sell off, with the Nasdaq closing 4.08 per cent down for its worst day since June 2016, and the MSCI ACWI Information Technology index down 4.03 per cent. But despite on-going concerns about trade wars, weakness in emerging markets and high valuations among certain technology stocks, the positive long-term outlook for the sector remains unchanged.

  • Market friendly Bolsonaro’s first round win in Brazilian election should calm investor nerves weblink

    White papers 8 October 2018

    Defying expectations, Brazil’s far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro won 46 per cent of the vote in a bitterly fought leadership race that has been the source of much market volatility in recent months. Bolsonaro’s victory now appears inevitable, but this first round success may calm investor nerves, further boosting equity markets and the Brazilian real.

  • Japan’s companies are evolving against a solid economic backdrop weblink

    White papers 4 October 2018

    Change is underway in Japan, and this is translating into better profits and returns for companies. Combined with attractive valuations, these are the perfect ingredients for sustainable returns for investors.

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