Amundi Asset Management

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  • Buybacks – A Multi-Perspective Review And Thoughts On Best Practices For Company Buyback Policies download

    White papers 29 October 2019

    US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches.

  • The Elizabeth Warren Moment weblink

    White papers 14 October 2019

    E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary polls and far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put her odds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders.

  • Trump Impeachment Is Likely, But Impact On Financial Markets Would Be Short-Lived weblink

    White papers 11 October 2019

    Impeachment process: The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.

  • The Fed Cuts Rate, But The Market Expects More download

    White papers 24 September 2019

    The Fed cut rates, but the market expects more: As expected the Federal Reserve lowered its target range for the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis, and now the market anticipates as many as three more cuts by the end of 2020. We think that is too much. In our view, the Fed is likely to pause to monitor the effects of the rate cuts on the economy, before acting again.

  • Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China. Concerning extra-tariffs measures, in August the temporary licences granted to US companies to operate with Huawei were extended upon their expiration but, so ...

  • US-China Trade War: Walking a Tightrope download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures in form of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - June 2019 download

    White papers 7 June 2019

    After weeks of relative stability, the threat of a trade war has returned, shaking investor confidence and awakening markets from complacency. However, while there is still a significant optimism in the market that a deal can be struck, we believe that the risk of disappointment leading to another wave of volatility remains significant.

  • The 2020 US Presidential Election: Another Close Race? weblink

    White papers 6 June 2019

    President Donald Trump’s performance on the US economy gives him a significant advantage over his Democratic rivals heading into the 2020 election. However, Trump has consistently polled poorly with voters on character issues including leadership, temperament and management skills. The potential fallout from the Mueller report and ongoing House investigations remain wildcards. The 2020 election could be another close call, possibly a 50-50 tossup at this stage ...

  • High Yield: Oasis In Search For Yield? download

    White papers 23 May 2019

    Since early 2016, US HY default rates have experienced a sort of “mini –cycle”, peaking at the end of 2016. Nevertheless, the recent rise and fall movements appear mostly commodity driven: default rates would have remained fairly stable if energy and material sectors were excluded from calculations.

  • US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war download

    White papers 14 May 2019

    In our opinion, investors should dismiss the idea that talks could break down, albeit uncertainties remain. Recent work has focused on details and wording, with the majority of the agreement document having been completed. However, several major issues remain, and on these it is largely up to Trump and XI to make final decisions.

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