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  • Greening Fixed Income markets: a challenge of today and tomorrow download

    White papers 4 November 2019

    Policymakers around the world continue to implement comprehensive strategies to foster sustainable finance.

  • Emerging Markets Charts & Views - A Tug Of War Between Weaker Growth And Looser Policies download

    White papers 29 October 2019

    Emerging economies have faced a backlash in the last few months as a consequence of the global economic weakness and the uncertainty related to global trade. This weighed on the performance of EM equities in the third quarter, although they recovered somewhat in September. EM debt proved more resilient, supported by investors’ appetite for yield. Idiosyncratic events (Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, to name a few) also impacted the overall more fragile environment for EM.

  • Buybacks – A Multi-Perspective Review And Thoughts On Best Practices For Company Buyback Policies download

    White papers 29 October 2019

    US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches.

  • Riksbank To Take Interest Rates Back To Zero By End Of 2019 – Norges Bank On Wait-And-See Mode weblink

    White papers 29 October 2019

    The Riksbank and Norges Bank both held their monetary policy meetings this week.

  • Global Investment Views - November 2019 download

    White papers 22 October 2019

    Limbo for markets will not last forever...

  • Italy: Few Ambitions From The New Budget Framework download

    White papers 18 October 2019

    On 30 September the newly formed Italian government released an update to April’s Economic and Finance Document, with new fiscal plans for the years 2019 to 2022 and changes to the underlying economic assumptions.

  • The Elizabeth Warren Moment weblink

    White papers 14 October 2019

    E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary polls and far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put her odds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders.

  • Liquidity Dilemma Needs A Regulatory Response download

    White papers 14 October 2019

    A few high-profile fund suspensions have recently driven the focus back to market liquidity and how this can affect the ability of funds to meet certain redemption scenarios. Despite ample liquidity at the macro level, some areas of strain remain at the micro level and could worsen in case of a material deterioration of economic conditions, a recession or a spike in volatility.

  • Trump Impeachment Is Likely, But Impact On Financial Markets Would Be Short-Lived weblink

    White papers 11 October 2019

    Impeachment process: The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - October 2019 weblink

    White papers 3 October 2019

    Over the past few weeks markets have fluctuated between positive news around geopolitics (US-China trade talks, Italy and receding risks of no-deal Brexit) and not so good news around economic data (German recession, US manufacturing and Chinese slowdown). This led to a rebound in equities and a rise in core bond yields.

  • Machine Learning Optimization Algorithms & Portfolio Allocation weblink

    White papers 2 October 2019

    Portfolio optimization emerged with the seminal paper of Markowitz (1952). The original mean-variance framework is appealing because it is very efficient from a computational point of view. However, it also has one well-established failing since it can lead to portfolios that are not optimal from a financial point of view (Michaud, 1989). Nevertheless, very few models have succeeded in providing a real alternative solution to the Markowitz model.

  • Despite the rise of cross-border distribution, domestic funds continue to have a bright future download

    White papers 1 October 2019

    Unabated support and growth in Cross Border funds Cross-border funds offer many advantages for investors and fund sponsors alike; most importantly, they enable all consumers to benefit from greater choice at a lower cost. Originally designed as retail investment products and benefiting from a passport for distribution throughout the EU, UCITS are now sold globally both to the public and to institutional investors.

  • Forecasting Combination: An Application For Exchange Rates download

    White papers 30 September 2019

    This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results.

  • Brexit: Extension Of The Deadline Is Likely, But The Final Outcome Remains Uncertain download

    White papers 26 September 2019

    Recent developments and next steps: Early this month, the UK Parliament passed a motion instructing the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to request an extension of the Brexit deadline by 19 October, and rejected the PM’s request for elections before 31 October (the current Brexit deadline).

  • French Pension Reform (An Update) download

    White papers 26 September 2019

    At the time we were writing the Thematic Paper entitled “French Pension Reform: A Trojan Horse for Better Control of the State Budget?”1, the financial sustainability of the French pension system looked certain. Since then, the government has set a new savings goal, with the aim of achieving financial equilibrium by 2025, and in doing so has prematurely ejected from its Trojan horse… This adds a whole new challenge to an already high-risk reform.

  • The ECB And The EU Banking Sector: Some Relief, With Winners And Losers download

    White papers 25 September 2019

    The new two-tier deposit-reserving scheme: With this measure the European banking sector could save up to c. €4 billion in annual interest costs (based on avoiding the -50bps deposit rate). However, while a large number in absolute terms, this only accounts for c. 2% of earnings on average for the main banks in the sector and therefore has little impact on overall Returns on Equity and profitability metrics.

  • The Fed Cuts Rate, But The Market Expects More download

    White papers 24 September 2019

    The Fed cut rates, but the market expects more: As expected the Federal Reserve lowered its target range for the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis, and now the market anticipates as many as three more cuts by the end of 2020. We think that is too much. In our view, the Fed is likely to pause to monitor the effects of the rate cuts on the economy, before acting again.

  • Global Investment Views - October 2019 download

    White papers 24 September 2019

    Stay Agile Amid High Uncertainty Over the past few weeks markets have fluctuated between positive news around geopolitics (US-China trade talks, Italy and receding risks of no-deal Brexit) and not so good news around economic data (German recession, US manufacturing and Chinese slowdown). This led to a rebound in equities and a rise in core bond yields.

  • Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China. Concerning extra-tariffs measures, in August the temporary licences granted to US companies to operate with Huawei were extended upon their expiration but, so ...

  • Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019 download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.

  • View on Italy: beyond the short term download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    The end of the political crisis and next steps for the new government: The new pro-European government looks to be willing to move in a different direction vs the previous one, with an agenda focused on green and socially inclusive policies. It is difficult to project how long this new coalition will last, but it will certainly have to address the next budget law. We expect to see some expansionary measures (lower labour costs plus investment spending), but without putting public finances ...

  • Global Investment Views - September 2019 download

    White papers 4 September 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.

  • Domestic focus to exploit Emerging Markets equity opportunities download

    White papers 1 September 2019

    The emerging markets (EM) universe has experienced significant changes in the last decade with the further addition of investible countries (i.e. China A shares in 2018).

  • Fed And Ecb, Bridging From A “Mid-Cycle Adjustment” To An “Impactful And Significant” Package. weblink

    White papers 27 August 2019

    The minutes from the latest ECB meeting suggest that the ECB is likely to proceed with a full set of measures in September, confirming not only the indications from President Draghi following the meeting but also the very latest statements by Olly Rehn, calling for the need for an “impactful and significant” package.

  • Do Universal Owners Vote To Curb Negative Corporate Externalities? An Empirical Analysis Of Shareholder Meetings weblink

    White papers 27 August 2019

    This paper tests whether very diversified and patient investors, also known as universal owners, tend to vote in favor of shareholder resolutions instructing corporations to reduce or communicate on the negative externalities they produce.

  • Italian politics take centre stage download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    The Deputy PM Matteo Salvini recently withdrew his party’s support to the coalition government headed by PM Giuseppe Conte, calling for a vote of no-confidence against the PM and subsequent snap elections.  On the 20th of August, after addressing the Senate, PM Conte resigned. President Sergio Mattarella will now weigh three options – consult political parties to form a new government (with the same forces of the current coalition or new ones), appoint a caretaker government or call ...

  • Argentina: how recent events shape the investment outlook download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    Recent update on Argentina: Government’s decision to freeze energy prices and suspend VAT on certain products will complicate fiscal metrics. The country is likely to miss the IMF target of a primary balance for 2019. However, the IMF could disburse the September tranche of financial assistance, although conviction levels are low.

  • Argentina: election surprise amplifies market and political risks download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    Argentina’s primary elections: Opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez won by largerthan-expected margin against President Macri. At this point, markets price in Fernandez’s victory in October elections.

  • US-China Trade War: Walking a Tightrope download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures in form of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2019 download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    We expect economic growth to evolve around potential for most developed economies in 2020. It could subsequently decrease below potential in 2021 driven by a deteriorating cyclical environment and still anaemic global trade. Nevertheless, growth should stay in positive territory.

  • Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Q3 2019 download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    The recent dovishness from the Fed, a benign inflation environment and the easing in global financial conditions continue to support a goldilocks environment for Emerging Markets (EM) assets. On the risks side, trade disputes appear to be softening as we approach the US presidential campaign. But the existing tariffs are weighing on the corporate earnings, with mixed prospects across regions as some countries are also benefitting from a restructuring of the global supply chain.

  • Global Asset Class Spotlights - Top Down Quaterly Assessment download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    Central banks seems to be very concerned about the slowdown in the economic cycle sparked by trade tensions. As a consequence, they have been intensifying their communications about their willingness to act.

  • Seek High Yield Opportunities, but be aware of liquidity conditions download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    Speculative grade bonds have been among the major beneficiaries of the rapid turn of both Fed and ECB monetary policy stances to much more dovish positions. Lower rates for longer and more synchronised easing mean much lower funding costs and easier financial conditions for HY companies, which, as we know, are more sensitive than IG companies to the absolute levels of nominal and real rates.

  • Global Investment Views - August 2019 download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB). Aware investors should recognise that the late cycle phase and mature market trends require improving fundamentals and positive political events to deliver sustainable uptrends in risk assets. But, it is difficult to see such improvements happening in the short term.

  • The FED and the ECB have shifted to an easing mode. The question now is for how long can accomodative monetary policy support growth? weblink

    White papers 25 July 2019

    The ECB and the Fed have shifted towards a more dovish stance because of concerns about global growth, the persistence of significant risks and the continued weakness of inflation...

  • France: The Reform Momentum Stays Alive After The Yellow Vest Crisis download

    White papers 25 July 2019

    Other dominant factors within the fixed income environment are the increased role of politics, the still present short-term downside risks regarding the economy, the high level of debt globally, and, moving towards the long term, rising acknowledgment of climate and societal-related risks.

  • Fixed Income Charts And Views download

    White papers 25 July 2019

    A slowdown in global growth, with subdued inflation and dovish central banks (CB) committed to avoiding further economic deceleration, is a trend that, in our view, should remain favourable for bond investors. On one side, this should limit the upside in core bond yields and, on the other, support the credit market, although we are aware that the spread compression in this first part of the year has been very strong and that an increasingly selective approach will be crucial to exploiting ...

  • Revisiting Fixed Income Opportunities After The European Institution Appointments download

    White papers 15 July 2019

    The appointment of Christine Lagarde as President of the ECB and Ursula Von der Leyen as President of the European Commission are undoubtedly among the best possible compromises, because these are two women of great experience, both very much in favour of strengthening the European Union.

  • Amundi Strategy Insight - July 2019 weblink

    White papers 9 July 2019

    2019 - First semester overview...

  • Italy: A Long And Winding Road download

    White papers 4 July 2019

    Arm-wrestling within the Italian government and between Italy and Brussels to find a solution to the Italian budget and avoid the Excessive Deficit Procedure. After Italy’s exit from a technical recession in H2 2018, economic data are still pointing to weakness, and many risks loom in the second half of this year.

  • Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - July 2019 download

    White papers 4 July 2019

    Risk FactorsThe table within the article presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not market based). It also develops the possible market impacts.  Macroeconomic Context - Our convictions and our scenariosThis section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios Macroeconomic picture by areaAn overview of the macroeconomic outlook for world’s major economic regions...

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - July 2019 download

    White papers 4 July 2019

    CIO Views: Central Banks Fuel markets: Illusion vs Reality  This Month’s Topic: Italy: A Long and Winding Road...

  • G20: Market Relief, Eyes Now On Central Bank's Execution download

    White papers 3 July 2019

    The worst case scenario of further trade escalation has been averted. The G20 meeting over the weekend resumed the negotiations between China and US on trade, after the tariffs increase in May on$200bn of Chinese products, and the consequent Chinese retaliation,which both put financial markets under pressure and increased downside risk to the economic outlook.

  • How to differentiate emerging countries? New Approaches For Classification And Typology download

    White papers 1 July 2019

    Once accepted the idea that the emerging world may behave like a block in period of crises (as the group of advanced countries also does), one must wonder whether one should go beyond that and consider that the emerging world deserves better: the wide divergence between countries, the health of some countries (sometimes better than some advanced countries) simply mean that it does not make sense to view the “emerging world” as a whole, as a block, but as well-defined, specific and homogeneous ..

  • Emerging Markets: Vulnerability And Contagion Risks... Fragile Vs. Anti-Fragile Countries download

    White papers 1 July 2019

    This article is aimed at analysing contagion within the emerging world in the past decades, and at presenting investment strategies to limit negative effects of contagion and / or to benefit from it.

  • Fixed Income strategies: Bridging the gap between quantitative and fundamental approaches download

    White papers 1 July 2019

    Bonds market faced low rates since many years. And they probably won’t rise up soon.

  • Global Investment Views - July 2019 download

    White papers 26 June 2019

    The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB). Aware investors should recognise that the late cycle phase and mature market trends require improving fundamentals and positive political events to deliver sustainable uptrends in risk assets.

  • Turkey: Inflation, Exchange Rate’s Pass-Through And Monetary Policy download

    White papers 25 June 2019

    Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months.

  • Factor Investing In Currency Markets: Does It Make Sense? download

    White papers 24 June 2019

    The concept of factor investing emerged at the end of the 2000s and has completely changed the landscape of equity investing. Today, institutional investors structure their strategic asset allocation around five risk factors: size, value, low beta, momentum and quality.

  • Three Themes For European Equities To Be Back In Focus download

    White papers 21 June 2019

    Volatility is here to stay. Markets are hostages of very volatile news flow. Trade-related anxiety is driving the swing (pessimism of a broken deal between China and US led to a correction in May while the renewed hope of a partial deal brought equity markets back to yearly highs in June).

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