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  • Italy: Few Ambitions From The New Budget Framework download

    White papers 18 October 2019

    On 30 September the newly formed Italian government released an update to April’s Economic and Finance Document, with new fiscal plans for the years 2019 to 2022 and changes to the underlying economic assumptions.

  • View on Italy: beyond the short term download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    The end of the political crisis and next steps for the new government: The new pro-European government looks to be willing to move in a different direction vs the previous one, with an agenda focused on green and socially inclusive policies. It is difficult to project how long this new coalition will last, but it will certainly have to address the next budget law. We expect to see some expansionary measures (lower labour costs plus investment spending), but without putting public finances ...

  • Italian politics take centre stage download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    The Deputy PM Matteo Salvini recently withdrew his party’s support to the coalition government headed by PM Giuseppe Conte, calling for a vote of no-confidence against the PM and subsequent snap elections.  On the 20th of August, after addressing the Senate, PM Conte resigned. President Sergio Mattarella will now weigh three options – consult political parties to form a new government (with the same forces of the current coalition or new ones), appoint a caretaker government or call ...

  • Italy: A Long And Winding Road download

    White papers 4 July 2019

    Arm-wrestling within the Italian government and between Italy and Brussels to find a solution to the Italian budget and avoid the Excessive Deficit Procedure. After Italy’s exit from a technical recession in H2 2018, economic data are still pointing to weakness, and many risks loom in the second half of this year.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - July 2019 download

    White papers 4 July 2019

    CIO Views: Central Banks Fuel markets: Illusion vs Reality  This Month’s Topic: Italy: A Long and Winding Road...

  • Italy: no short-term confrontation with the EU, but uncertainty in the mid-term. download

    White papers 24 April 2019

    In the new forecasts for the 2020 budget and beyond from the Italian government (from the latest economic blueprint, of 9 April: “The Stability and Growth Path, SGP”), its economic projections come much closer to consensus than previous ones, pointing to weaker GDP growth.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - February 2019 download

    White papers 1 February 2019

    After a tough December, which led to an abrupt valuation reset, risk assets rebounded in the first weeks of the year, boosted by a market-sympathetic turn in Fed rhetoric and an increased optimism on trade negotiations. As the current reasons for optimism should be confirmed, we believe it is time to re-approach the areas of risk assets where the correction has brought value back, especially in emerging markets.

  • Italy moves towards an Excessive Deficit Procedure, but a change of attitude is in the air weblink

    White papers 26 November 2018

    This large and unprecedented deliberate breach of the so-called “preventive arm” measures therefore calls for moving Italy into the “corrective arm” of the Stability and Growth Pact.

  • Italian budget proposal under scrutiny weblink

    White papers 28 September 2018

    The key points of the budget law. The Italian Government negatively surprised the markets by announcing a substantially increased budget deficit target for 2019-2021 to 2.4% in a move that could undermine the potential to reduce the Italian debt burden (130% of GDP) in the coming years.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2018 weblink

    White papers 19 September 2018

    Italian budget discussions are going to intensify as the 27th of September approaches, date of publication of the document outlining the new budget law and when there should be more clarity on the key economic projections and deficit targets.

  • Italy: Troubled waters and complex challenges ahead but no Italexit on the roadmap! weblink

    White papers 14 June 2018

    In just a few days, investors have shifted from perhaps excessive complacency to excess pessimism about Italian politics.

  • Italy: Fundamentals are the compass amid political twists weblink

    White papers 5 June 2018

    A new Government: After three months of deadlock, 5Star Movement and the League agreed on a redesigned Government formation.

  • Italy towards new elections weblink

    White papers 28 May 2018

    On May 27th, the designated Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte gave up his mandate to form a Government.

  • Italian political transition following unclear paths. Wise to wait and see weblink

    White papers 22 May 2018

    The political situation in Italy is still uncertain, with some indication, but no formal appointment of the Prime Minister. We may witness a somewhat unusual state of affairs over the next few days, a sort of “technical government” of no parliamentary extraction, subject to a political contract.

  • Italy on watch list weblink

    White papers 15 May 2018

    Political uncertainty in Italy remains high. The probability of a Government formed between the 5Star Movement (M5S) and the League (the most voted party in the centre right coalition) has increased in recent days, but the process of government formation is not straightforward.

  • Complex Italian election outcome should not threaten the positive European story

    White papers 5 March 2018

    The electoral outcome (the very positive result of Five Star Movement, now the largest party, and of the Lega Nord in the center right coalition) was not priced by the market.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: February 2018

    White papers 9 February 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

  • Italy: back to growth

    White papers 21 December 2017

    After underperforming against its peers for two decades in macroeconomic terms and following the deepest double-dip recession in its history (in 2008-2009 and in 2012-2013), the Italian economy is growing again, partially thanks to the strong, synchronised growth seen across the Eurozone, but also partially due to some structural improvements that have boosted competitiveness.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: May 2017

    White papers 5 May 2017

    The purpose of this article is to present the state of affairs on the polls, the priorities of the French and to recall the program of the two candidates as well as the major issues: to obtain a parliamentary majority for E. Macron, to obtain a parliamentary majority and to clarify her position on Europe for Marine Le Pen.

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