Amundi Asset Management

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  • Riksbank To Take Interest Rates Back To Zero By End Of 2019 – Norges Bank On Wait-And-See Mode weblink

    White papers 29 October 2019

    The Riksbank and Norges Bank both held their monetary policy meetings this week.

  • Italy: Few Ambitions From The New Budget Framework download

    White papers 18 October 2019

    On 30 September the newly formed Italian government released an update to April’s Economic and Finance Document, with new fiscal plans for the years 2019 to 2022 and changes to the underlying economic assumptions.

  • Liquidity Dilemma Needs A Regulatory Response download

    White papers 14 October 2019

    A few high-profile fund suspensions have recently driven the focus back to market liquidity and how this can affect the ability of funds to meet certain redemption scenarios. Despite ample liquidity at the macro level, some areas of strain remain at the micro level and could worsen in case of a material deterioration of economic conditions, a recession or a spike in volatility.

  • Despite the rise of cross-border distribution, domestic funds continue to have a bright future download

    White papers 1 October 2019

    Unabated support and growth in Cross Border funds Cross-border funds offer many advantages for investors and fund sponsors alike; most importantly, they enable all consumers to benefit from greater choice at a lower cost. Originally designed as retail investment products and benefiting from a passport for distribution throughout the EU, UCITS are now sold globally both to the public and to institutional investors.

  • Forecasting Combination: An Application For Exchange Rates download

    White papers 30 September 2019

    This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results.

  • Brexit: Extension Of The Deadline Is Likely, But The Final Outcome Remains Uncertain download

    White papers 26 September 2019

    Recent developments and next steps: Early this month, the UK Parliament passed a motion instructing the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to request an extension of the Brexit deadline by 19 October, and rejected the PM’s request for elections before 31 October (the current Brexit deadline).

  • French Pension Reform (An Update) download

    White papers 26 September 2019

    At the time we were writing the Thematic Paper entitled “French Pension Reform: A Trojan Horse for Better Control of the State Budget?”1, the financial sustainability of the French pension system looked certain. Since then, the government has set a new savings goal, with the aim of achieving financial equilibrium by 2025, and in doing so has prematurely ejected from its Trojan horse… This adds a whole new challenge to an already high-risk reform.

  • The ECB And The EU Banking Sector: Some Relief, With Winners And Losers download

    White papers 25 September 2019

    The new two-tier deposit-reserving scheme: With this measure the European banking sector could save up to c. €4 billion in annual interest costs (based on avoiding the -50bps deposit rate). However, while a large number in absolute terms, this only accounts for c. 2% of earnings on average for the main banks in the sector and therefore has little impact on overall Returns on Equity and profitability metrics.

  • View on Italy: beyond the short term download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    The end of the political crisis and next steps for the new government: The new pro-European government looks to be willing to move in a different direction vs the previous one, with an agenda focused on green and socially inclusive policies. It is difficult to project how long this new coalition will last, but it will certainly have to address the next budget law. We expect to see some expansionary measures (lower labour costs plus investment spending), but without putting public finances ...

  • France: The Reform Momentum Stays Alive After The Yellow Vest Crisis download

    White papers 25 July 2019

    Other dominant factors within the fixed income environment are the increased role of politics, the still present short-term downside risks regarding the economy, the high level of debt globally, and, moving towards the long term, rising acknowledgment of climate and societal-related risks.

  • Revisiting Fixed Income Opportunities After The European Institution Appointments download

    White papers 15 July 2019

    The appointment of Christine Lagarde as President of the ECB and Ursula Von der Leyen as President of the European Commission are undoubtedly among the best possible compromises, because these are two women of great experience, both very much in favour of strengthening the European Union.

  • Italy: A Long And Winding Road download

    White papers 4 July 2019

    Arm-wrestling within the Italian government and between Italy and Brussels to find a solution to the Italian budget and avoid the Excessive Deficit Procedure. After Italy’s exit from a technical recession in H2 2018, economic data are still pointing to weakness, and many risks loom in the second half of this year.

  • Turkey: Inflation, Exchange Rate’s Pass-Through And Monetary Policy download

    White papers 25 June 2019

    Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months.

  • Three Themes For European Equities To Be Back In Focus download

    White papers 21 June 2019

    Volatility is here to stay. Markets are hostages of very volatile news flow. Trade-related anxiety is driving the swing (pessimism of a broken deal between China and US led to a correction in May while the renewed hope of a partial deal brought equity markets back to yearly highs in June).

  • Investing in the changing shape of Emerging Markets weblink

    White papers 18 June 2019

    The emerging markets (EM) universe has experienced significant changes in the last decade with the further addition of investible countries (ie China A shares in 2018), the surge in the size of EM bond markets and the further development of the local currency bond markets.

  • European elections: not a game changer, opportunities from divergences download

    White papers 28 May 2019

    The results are broadly in line with what opinion polls had indicated, although with a slight “pro-institution” surprise. Key takeaways are, first, a decline in the votes for the two large political groups which are the social-democrats and the Christian-democrats or moderate right; these two parties had, since 1979, commanded a combined majority in the European Parliament, and this is now over.

  • European Equities: What Impacts In The Event Of A Tariff War With The United States? download

    White papers 3 May 2019

    While the threat of a large-scale Sino-US tariff war appears to be receding, the US could now switch its focus to its trade deficits with the European Union. With this in mind, we wanted to find out which European equities, in terms of country, sector or individual companies, would be hardest hit by a trade conflict.

  • Spain: Forming A Coalition Will Take Time, But The Picture Looks Benign For Investors download

    White papers 1 May 2019

    The outcome: The ruling Socialist Party of Pedro Sánchez came first, however without an absolute majority in Parliament. The new, far-right, VOX party also entered Parliament.

  • Italy: no short-term confrontation with the EU, but uncertainty in the mid-term. download

    White papers 24 April 2019

    In the new forecasts for the 2020 budget and beyond from the Italian government (from the latest economic blueprint, of 9 April: “The Stability and Growth Path, SGP”), its economic projections come much closer to consensus than previous ones, pointing to weaker GDP growth.

  • Persistence And Skill In The Performance Of Mutual Fund Families download

    White papers 26 March 2019

    Prior research has shown that decisions made at fund family level can account for a substantial portion of the performance of the individual active fund managers in the family.

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