Amundi Asset Management

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  • Emerging Markets Charts & Views - A Tug Of War Between Weaker Growth And Looser Policies download

    White papers 29 October 2019

    Emerging economies have faced a backlash in the last few months as a consequence of the global economic weakness and the uncertainty related to global trade. This weighed on the performance of EM equities in the third quarter, although they recovered somewhat in September. EM debt proved more resilient, supported by investors’ appetite for yield. Idiosyncratic events (Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, to name a few) also impacted the overall more fragile environment for EM.

  • Buybacks – A Multi-Perspective Review And Thoughts On Best Practices For Company Buyback Policies download

    White papers 29 October 2019

    US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches.

  • Riksbank To Take Interest Rates Back To Zero By End Of 2019 – Norges Bank On Wait-And-See Mode weblink

    White papers 29 October 2019

    The Riksbank and Norges Bank both held their monetary policy meetings this week.

  • The Elizabeth Warren Moment weblink

    White papers 14 October 2019

    E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary polls and far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put her odds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - October 2019 weblink

    White papers 3 October 2019

    Over the past few weeks markets have fluctuated between positive news around geopolitics (US-China trade talks, Italy and receding risks of no-deal Brexit) and not so good news around economic data (German recession, US manufacturing and Chinese slowdown). This led to a rebound in equities and a rise in core bond yields.

  • Machine Learning Optimization Algorithms & Portfolio Allocation weblink

    White papers 2 October 2019

    Portfolio optimization emerged with the seminal paper of Markowitz (1952). The original mean-variance framework is appealing because it is very efficient from a computational point of view. However, it also has one well-established failing since it can lead to portfolios that are not optimal from a financial point of view (Michaud, 1989). Nevertheless, very few models have succeeded in providing a real alternative solution to the Markowitz model.

  • Despite the rise of cross-border distribution, domestic funds continue to have a bright future download

    White papers 1 October 2019

    Unabated support and growth in Cross Border funds Cross-border funds offer many advantages for investors and fund sponsors alike; most importantly, they enable all consumers to benefit from greater choice at a lower cost. Originally designed as retail investment products and benefiting from a passport for distribution throughout the EU, UCITS are now sold globally both to the public and to institutional investors.

  • Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China. Concerning extra-tariffs measures, in August the temporary licences granted to US companies to operate with Huawei were extended upon their expiration but, so ...

  • Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019 download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.

  • View on Italy: beyond the short term download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    The end of the political crisis and next steps for the new government: The new pro-European government looks to be willing to move in a different direction vs the previous one, with an agenda focused on green and socially inclusive policies. It is difficult to project how long this new coalition will last, but it will certainly have to address the next budget law. We expect to see some expansionary measures (lower labour costs plus investment spending), but without putting public finances ...

  • Domestic focus to exploit Emerging Markets equity opportunities download

    White papers 1 September 2019

    The emerging markets (EM) universe has experienced significant changes in the last decade with the further addition of investible countries (i.e. China A shares in 2018).

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2019 download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    We expect economic growth to evolve around potential for most developed economies in 2020. It could subsequently decrease below potential in 2021 driven by a deteriorating cyclical environment and still anaemic global trade. Nevertheless, growth should stay in positive territory.

  • Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Q3 2019 download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    The recent dovishness from the Fed, a benign inflation environment and the easing in global financial conditions continue to support a goldilocks environment for Emerging Markets (EM) assets. On the risks side, trade disputes appear to be softening as we approach the US presidential campaign. But the existing tariffs are weighing on the corporate earnings, with mixed prospects across regions as some countries are also benefitting from a restructuring of the global supply chain.

  • G20: Market Relief, Eyes Now On Central Bank's Execution download

    White papers 3 July 2019

    The worst case scenario of further trade escalation has been averted. The G20 meeting over the weekend resumed the negotiations between China and US on trade, after the tariffs increase in May on$200bn of Chinese products, and the consequent Chinese retaliation,which both put financial markets under pressure and increased downside risk to the economic outlook.

  • How to differentiate emerging countries? New Approaches For Classification And Typology download

    White papers 1 July 2019

    Once accepted the idea that the emerging world may behave like a block in period of crises (as the group of advanced countries also does), one must wonder whether one should go beyond that and consider that the emerging world deserves better: the wide divergence between countries, the health of some countries (sometimes better than some advanced countries) simply mean that it does not make sense to view the “emerging world” as a whole, as a block, but as well-defined, specific and homogeneous ..

  • Emerging Markets: Vulnerability And Contagion Risks... Fragile Vs. Anti-Fragile Countries download

    White papers 1 July 2019

    This article is aimed at analysing contagion within the emerging world in the past decades, and at presenting investment strategies to limit negative effects of contagion and / or to benefit from it.

  • Turkey: Inflation, Exchange Rate’s Pass-Through And Monetary Policy download

    White papers 25 June 2019

    Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months.

  • Three Themes For European Equities To Be Back In Focus download

    White papers 21 June 2019

    Volatility is here to stay. Markets are hostages of very volatile news flow. Trade-related anxiety is driving the swing (pessimism of a broken deal between China and US led to a correction in May while the renewed hope of a partial deal brought equity markets back to yearly highs in June).

  • Investing in the changing shape of Emerging Markets weblink

    White papers 18 June 2019

    The emerging markets (EM) universe has experienced significant changes in the last decade with the further addition of investible countries (ie China A shares in 2018), the surge in the size of EM bond markets and the further development of the local currency bond markets.

  • Variance Premium, Downside Risk, And Expected Stock Returns download

    White papers 17 June 2019

    We decompose total variance into its bad and good components and measure the premia associated with their fluctuations using stock and option data from a large cross-section of firms. The total variance risk premium (VRP) represents the premium paid to insure against fluctuations in bad variance (called bad VRP), net of the premium received to compensate for fluctuations in good variance (called good VRP).

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