Amundi Asset Management

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  • Turkey shakes summer thin markets, but contagion risk is contained weblink

    White papers 14 August 2018

    The domestic boom has been financed by private debt (mainly external debt). Well before this week’s crisis, Turkey was the most vulnerable country in our EM ranking...

  • Where will the next financial crisis come from? Are we ready to confront it? weblink

    White papers 2 August 2018

    The world is not yet completely out of the 2007- 2008 financial crisis, but the risk of a new crisis already arises. The theme of “regime shift” (volatility, interest rate, inflation, etc.) has resurfaced, which led to a marked correction in financial markets in January – February.

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018 weblink

    White papers 1 August 2018

    The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.

  • Global Investment Views: August 2018 weblink

    White papers 27 July 2018

    Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure.

  • Exchange rate predictability in Emerging Markets weblink

    White papers 20 July 2018

    This paper uses financial and macroeconomic variables to predict currency returns, by using a two-step procedure. The first step consists of a cointegration equation that explains the exchange rate level as a function of global and domestic financial factors. The second step estimates an error-correction equation, for modeling the expected returns. This approach is a factor model analysis, where a Lasso derived technique is used for variable selection.

  • The living wage: towards better industry practices weblink

    White papers 17 July 2018

    The concept of living wage goes back to the early twentieth century, with the creation of the International Labour Organization in 1919. Subsequently, this concept was taken up several times in texts that played a structural role in labour law (Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Tripartite Declaration of Principles concerning Multinational Enterprises and Social Policy, and the ILO Declaration on Social Justice for a Fair Globalization).

  • China Assets hit by trade talks: what expect from now weblink

    White papers 12 July 2018

    The US-China relationship appears to be deteriorating. US recently published a list of an additional $200bn of Chinese products subject to 10% tariff rates that will be put forward for the public hearing process by 30 August and could possibly be implemented in September.

  • Pacte Law: what changes lie ahead for savings in France weblink

    White papers 12 July 2018

    The Pacte Law, presented on June 18, 2018 at the French Council of Ministers, should come into force no later than January 2020, after a period of parliamentary debates and the publication of implementing decrees.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2018 weblink

    White papers 6 July 2018

    Since the beginning of the year, emerging market risky assets have become more volatile.

  • CIO Insights: Key investment convictions for the short and long term weblink

    White papers 6 July 2018

    Long-term investing is about the belief that fundamental value exists and that asset class returns tend to mean revert to their equilibrium level and rotate around it, within regimes.

  • Protectionism intensifies: country and sector selection to mitigate its effects weblink

    White papers 4 July 2018

    As a base case, we expect limited tariffs will be implemented on different fronts with relatively controlled macro impacts while talks continue. Although talks have become more contentious, we do still see space for negotiation among the various parties. This is the main difference vs a proper “trade war”.

  • Global Investment Views: July 2018 weblink

    White papers 26 June 2018

    Investors have experienced generally low returns so far this year, due to the clouds currently gathering on the horizon, and the approach to risk assets is being characterised by increased caution.

  • Portfolio allocation with skewness risk: a practical guide weblink

    White papers 19 June 2018

    In this article, we show how to take into account skewness risk in portfolio allocation.

  • The FED leans hawkish and short rates move higher weblink

    White papers 18 June 2018

    While the Fed under Chair Yellen acknowledged global risks in early 2016 as a contributing factor in its decision to defer rate increases, it is unclear whether global factors would exert as significant an impact on the current FOMC.

  • ECB: Short term rates anchored weblink

    White papers 15 June 2018

    According to the ECB projections, the GDP expansion will remain above potential for the next two years, driven by both domestic investment and household consumption. Inflation is revised up, albeit modestly.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: June 2018 weblink

    White papers 14 June 2018

    Go the extra mile, but check the exits...

  • Italy: Troubled waters and complex challenges ahead but no Italexit on the roadmap! weblink

    White papers 14 June 2018

    In just a few days, investors have shifted from perhaps excessive complacency to excess pessimism about Italian politics.

  • Italy: Fundamentals are the compass amid political twists weblink

    White papers 5 June 2018

    A new Government: After three months of deadlock, 5Star Movement and the League agreed on a redesigned Government formation.

  • MSCI China A-share inclusion along the way of China’s transition to quality growth weblink

    White papers 1 June 2018

    In June 2017, MSCI announced the partial inclusion of China’s domestically traded, yuan-denominated stocks, or so-called A-shares to MSCI China, MSCI Emerging Markets, and MSCI All Country indices, which is to be implemented from June 2018.

  • France: Significant promises kept, but the most crucial reforms will take time weblink

    White papers 31 May 2018

    One year on from his election victory the French president has already lived up to some of his campaign promises, most visibly regarding labour market regulation and taxation, actions that have generally been welcomed by international financial commentators.

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