Amundi Asset Management

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  • Economic Crisis And Political Risk Batter Argentina. Way Out Or Opportunity? download

    White papers 13 May 2019

    The economy is facing severe stagflation. Monetary and fiscal policy are extremely tight, consumer and investor confidence is low, and inflation is proving very sticky amidst wage indexation. Whilst we view the fiscal and monetary mix to be appropriate given Argentina’s macro challenges, it is possible that these measures may not be able to stabilise the economy in time for the elections.

  • H1 2019 - Emerging Markets Charts & Views: Seek opportunities, but be aware of short-term volatility download

    White papers 13 March 2019

    Emerging markets (EM) started 2019 on a strong footing and, as a result, some excessive valuation gaps have been partially closed. Yet, we continue to see opportunities in all EM segments (equity, bonds in hard currency and in local currency) with a medium to long-term view.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy Special Edition: Outlook 2019 weblink

    White papers 6 December 2018

    With late cycle features continuing to materialise and a higher level of vulnerability developing due to the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, 2019 will require investors to embrace a more prudent approach, despite the benign global economic outlook.

  • Brazilian elections: lights and shadows on the horizon weblink

    White papers 31 October 2018

    The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad.

  • Exchange rate predictability in Emerging Markets weblink

    White papers 20 July 2018

    This paper uses financial and macroeconomic variables to predict currency returns, by using a two-step procedure. The first step consists of a cointegration equation that explains the exchange rate level as a function of global and domestic financial factors. The second step estimates an error-correction equation, for modeling the expected returns. This approach is a factor model analysis, where a Lasso derived technique is used for variable selection.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2018 weblink

    White papers 6 July 2018

    Since the beginning of the year, emerging market risky assets have become more volatile.

  • Venezuela on the edge of the cliff: let's be cautious

    White papers 14 November 2017

    President Nicolas Maduro recently announced the Republic of Venezuela’s intention to restructure all foreign debt, thus recognising the country’s current debt load as unsustainable.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2017

    White papers 1 August 2017

    FOMC members plan to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet this year and gave recently some precisions about how they will do.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: April 2017

    White papers 6 April 2017

    The Trump effect, the Brexit effect, and the impact of European elections… What if everyone – or nearly – were wrong?

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: March 2017

    White papers 15 March 2017

    This month, we present the main issues and scenarios relating to French presidential and legislative elections, as well as the most likely market impacts.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: February 2017

    White papers 16 February 2017

    The rise in long-term  interest rates raises a crucial question: is it a change in regime, a change in level, or a correction within a band of fluctuation that will remain low? The purpose of this article is to answer this question.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: January 2017

    White papers 16 January 2017

    As 2017 begins, it is helpful to take stock of the key issues coming into focus.

  • Cross Asset: 2017 and beyond

    White papers 22 November 2016

    In an ultra-low or even negative interest rate environment, maintaining an overweight stance in emerging market assets (equities, debt and currencies), in credit (vs. government bonds) still makes sense, while continuing our search for yield and spreads.

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