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  • European elections: not a game changer, opportunities from divergences download

    White papers 28 May 2019

    The results are broadly in line with what opinion polls had indicated, although with a slight “pro-institution” surprise. Key takeaways are, first, a decline in the votes for the two large political groups which are the social-democrats and the Christian-democrats or moderate right; these two parties had, since 1979, commanded a combined majority in the European Parliament, and this is now over.

  • US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war download

    White papers 14 May 2019

    In our opinion, investors should dismiss the idea that talks could break down, albeit uncertainties remain. Recent work has focused on details and wording, with the majority of the agreement document having been completed. However, several major issues remain, and on these it is largely up to Trump and XI to make final decisions.

  • China more appealing based on progress in trade negotiations download

    White papers 7 February 2019

    The recent statements following the bilateral meetings between the US and China suggest that important progress has been made, and more details are emerging compared to the quiet early January round.

  • Focus on fundamentals to ride turbulent markets download

    White papers 3 January 2019

    Investors are facing an unsettled environment. For 2019 we think it will be key to look at three areas:...

  • Why Investors Should Care About French “Yellow Vests” Protest weblink

    White papers 12 December 2018

    The Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) are a largely spontaneous protest movement that emerged in France, in October. With no declared political affiliation, they called for lower taxes and a higher level of social transfers and public services.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy Special Edition: Outlook 2019 weblink

    White papers 6 December 2018

    With late cycle features continuing to materialise and a higher level of vulnerability developing due to the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, 2019 will require investors to embrace a more prudent approach, despite the benign global economic outlook.

  • From G20: Short-Term Relief, But It Is Not The Final Word On Trade Disputes weblink

    White papers 3 December 2018

    The latest G20 demonstrates some temporary progress in the US/China relationship. An increase of tariff rates in January 2019 was put on hold and the possibility for an additional tranche of tariffs for the rest of US imports from China ($267bn) is also further delayed, at least. China has found the right entry point to give some concessions to the US on sensitive topics for President Trump.

  • Global Investment Views: October 2018 weblink

    White papers 28 September 2018

    The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey, Argentina and South Africa) contributed to the almost indiscriminate repricing of EM assets, starting with plummeting EM currencies.

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018 weblink

    White papers 1 August 2018

    The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.

  • Global Investment Views: August 2018 weblink

    White papers 27 July 2018

    Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure.

  • Protectionism intensifies: country and sector selection to mitigate its effects weblink

    White papers 4 July 2018

    As a base case, we expect limited tariffs will be implemented on different fronts with relatively controlled macro impacts while talks continue. Although talks have become more contentious, we do still see space for negotiation among the various parties. This is the main difference vs a proper “trade war”.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: February 2018

    White papers 9 February 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

  • Quarterly Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q1 - 2018

    White papers 6 February 2018

    The robust global economic growth experienced in 2017 is expected to continue into 2018, albeit with some notable exceptions such as UK. Such growth is to be reflected in ever higher equity price levels and thus expected to become costlier with respect to the most recent valuations.

  • Global Investment Views: February 2018

    White papers 26 January 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: January 2018

    White papers 11 January 2018

    Investors have enjoyed a quiet year in 2017, with few bumpier spots, overall record-low volatility and nice returns. Moving into 2018, the temptation for risk assets is still high.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2017

    White papers 1 August 2017

    FOMC members plan to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet this year and gave recently some precisions about how they will do.

  • Global Investment Views: July 2017

    White papers 1 August 2017

    CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee...

  • Our Convictions: May 2017

    White papers 9 May 2017

    We have repeatedly mentioned how financial markets have tended to overestimate the risks of European elections, underestimate the fears of the Brexit and overestimate hopes on Trump’s economic policy.

  • French Presidential Elections: Macron president - risks disappear...Back to fundamentals

    White papers 8 May 2017

    The second round of the presidential election provided the name of the winner: E. Macron is the next president of the French Republic (66% of the votes).

  • Our Convictions: March 2017

    White papers 16 March 2017

    No major changes on the macroeconomic front last month, but, rather, a confirmation of trends that we had already factored into our asset allocation.

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