Amundi Asset Management

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  • Despite the rise of cross-border distribution, domestic funds continue to have a bright future download

    White papers 1 October 2019

    Unabated support and growth in Cross Border funds Cross-border funds offer many advantages for investors and fund sponsors alike; most importantly, they enable all consumers to benefit from greater choice at a lower cost. Originally designed as retail investment products and benefiting from a passport for distribution throughout the EU, UCITS are now sold globally both to the public and to institutional investors.

  • Forecasting Combination: An Application For Exchange Rates download

    White papers 30 September 2019

    This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results.

  • French Pension Reform (An Update) download

    White papers 26 September 2019

    At the time we were writing the Thematic Paper entitled “French Pension Reform: A Trojan Horse for Better Control of the State Budget?”1, the financial sustainability of the French pension system looked certain. Since then, the government has set a new savings goal, with the aim of achieving financial equilibrium by 2025, and in doing so has prematurely ejected from its Trojan horse… This adds a whole new challenge to an already high-risk reform.

  • Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China. Concerning extra-tariffs measures, in August the temporary licences granted to US companies to operate with Huawei were extended upon their expiration but, so ...

  • Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019 download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.

  • Global Investment Views - September 2019 download

    White papers 4 September 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.

  • Domestic focus to exploit Emerging Markets equity opportunities download

    White papers 1 September 2019

    The emerging markets (EM) universe has experienced significant changes in the last decade with the further addition of investible countries (i.e. China A shares in 2018).

  • Fed And Ecb, Bridging From A “Mid-Cycle Adjustment” To An “Impactful And Significant” Package. weblink

    White papers 27 August 2019

    The minutes from the latest ECB meeting suggest that the ECB is likely to proceed with a full set of measures in September, confirming not only the indications from President Draghi following the meeting but also the very latest statements by Olly Rehn, calling for the need for an “impactful and significant” package.

  • Italian politics take centre stage download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    The Deputy PM Matteo Salvini recently withdrew his party’s support to the coalition government headed by PM Giuseppe Conte, calling for a vote of no-confidence against the PM and subsequent snap elections.  On the 20th of August, after addressing the Senate, PM Conte resigned. President Sergio Mattarella will now weigh three options – consult political parties to form a new government (with the same forces of the current coalition or new ones), appoint a caretaker government or call ...

  • Argentina: how recent events shape the investment outlook download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    Recent update on Argentina: Government’s decision to freeze energy prices and suspend VAT on certain products will complicate fiscal metrics. The country is likely to miss the IMF target of a primary balance for 2019. However, the IMF could disburse the September tranche of financial assistance, although conviction levels are low.

  • Argentina: election surprise amplifies market and political risks download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    Argentina’s primary elections: Opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez won by largerthan-expected margin against President Macri. At this point, markets price in Fernandez’s victory in October elections.

  • US-China Trade War: Walking a Tightrope download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures in form of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2019 download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    We expect economic growth to evolve around potential for most developed economies in 2020. It could subsequently decrease below potential in 2021 driven by a deteriorating cyclical environment and still anaemic global trade. Nevertheless, growth should stay in positive territory.

  • Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Q3 2019 download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    The recent dovishness from the Fed, a benign inflation environment and the easing in global financial conditions continue to support a goldilocks environment for Emerging Markets (EM) assets. On the risks side, trade disputes appear to be softening as we approach the US presidential campaign. But the existing tariffs are weighing on the corporate earnings, with mixed prospects across regions as some countries are also benefitting from a restructuring of the global supply chain.

  • Global Asset Class Spotlights - Top Down Quaterly Assessment download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    Central banks seems to be very concerned about the slowdown in the economic cycle sparked by trade tensions. As a consequence, they have been intensifying their communications about their willingness to act.

  • Seek High Yield Opportunities, but be aware of liquidity conditions download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    Speculative grade bonds have been among the major beneficiaries of the rapid turn of both Fed and ECB monetary policy stances to much more dovish positions. Lower rates for longer and more synchronised easing mean much lower funding costs and easier financial conditions for HY companies, which, as we know, are more sensitive than IG companies to the absolute levels of nominal and real rates.

  • Global Investment Views - August 2019 download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB). Aware investors should recognise that the late cycle phase and mature market trends require improving fundamentals and positive political events to deliver sustainable uptrends in risk assets. But, it is difficult to see such improvements happening in the short term.

  • The FED and the ECB have shifted to an easing mode. The question now is for how long can accomodative monetary policy support growth? weblink

    White papers 25 July 2019

    The ECB and the Fed have shifted towards a more dovish stance because of concerns about global growth, the persistence of significant risks and the continued weakness of inflation...

  • France: The Reform Momentum Stays Alive After The Yellow Vest Crisis download

    White papers 25 July 2019

    Other dominant factors within the fixed income environment are the increased role of politics, the still present short-term downside risks regarding the economy, the high level of debt globally, and, moving towards the long term, rising acknowledgment of climate and societal-related risks.

  • Fixed Income Charts And Views download

    White papers 25 July 2019

    A slowdown in global growth, with subdued inflation and dovish central banks (CB) committed to avoiding further economic deceleration, is a trend that, in our view, should remain favourable for bond investors. On one side, this should limit the upside in core bond yields and, on the other, support the credit market, although we are aware that the spread compression in this first part of the year has been very strong and that an increasingly selective approach will be crucial to exploiting ...

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