Outlooks
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White papers
Neuberger Berman Private Markets Q4 2023 Preliminary Valuation Summary and Analysis
Doug Manor, Managing Director, Neuberger Berman Private Markets, provides an overview of private equity markets and an outlook based on trends in the marketplace.
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White papers
India: The structural growth story and the long-term investment opportunity
India’s equity markets are being driven by fundamentals in the form of robust economic expansion which is leading to strong earnings growth. India is also, helpfully, in the draft of favorable geopolitical tailwinds. In this paper, we make the case for India—not as the potential new China or as potentially one of the best-performing equity markets of 2024—but for its own long-term structural growth prospects. We also explain why an active approach is needed to get the best out of India, to capture quality, navigate the challenges, and manage macro variables like inflation, interest rates and global economic growth.
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White papers
Asian IT: the global AI enabler
The information-technology sector in Asia is entering a very exciting stage. Profound disruptive change powered by generative artificial intelligence could reshape the world in the next 10 years, and Asian IT is the enabler. Technology hardware is our main pick among sectors in 2024 and the topic of the second in our four-part series on Asian equities.
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White papers
Is employment at the heart of US economic growth?
Every economist fetishises their chosen leading indicator for the US economy – be it the ISM manufacturing index, capacity utilisation rate or new home sales. We cannot overstate the dangers of this habit and prefer to base our analysis on nowcasting indicators. But if there is one indicator that represents a syncretism of the economy, it is the labour market. This week, Simply put applies an economic theory linking employment conditions to GDP growth to estimate US output for 2024.
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White papers
CIO views: finding value through patient investing
How and where can patience reward investors? Over time, how could patient investors find better value? Across asset classes, our CIOs seek out areas they believe are underestimated or mispriced by the market and could offer superior prospects to investors adopting a long-term approach.
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White papers
The Second Wave of the AI Investment Theme
The artificial intelligence investment theme made the “Magnificent Seven”—but could soon begin to disrupt it.
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White papers
A sort-of Super Tuesday
This week played host to ‘Super Tuesday’, a key date in the US presidential election calendar where key states hold their primary elections. This year’s results yielded few surprises and set up the 2024 US Presidential election to be a rematch of 2020.
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White papers
Where next for the rally?
Three key equity markets hit all-time highs this week as the risk-on mood broadened beyond the US and into Asia-Pacific (APAC) indices.
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White papers
Infrastructure Investor: Flight to quality over quantity
“Diversification is key as global and macroeconomic trends continue to boost returns across the infrastructure debt market.” - Victor Kozel, Head of Infrastructure Debt
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White papers
Confronting the ‘China bear’
Given China’s clouded economic outlook and the now deeply depressed ratios on Chinese equities, should investors remain negative on the Chinese market much longer? While it may be too early to become a ‘China bull’, recent domestic policy and geopolitical developments may start chasing away the ‘China bear’. So, what has changed?
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White papers
Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts - March 2024
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 7 March 2024
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White papers
Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - March 2024
”European PMI data diverge not only in terms of sectors, but also in terms of countries and sub-components.”
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2024
“While we expect the Fed, Bank of England and ECB to start rate cuts around June, we will keep an eye on the pace of disinflation for any surprises.”
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White papers
Illiquidity premia in private debt: Q4 2023
In our latest real assets deep dive, our research team crunches the data to see how evolving macro conditions are reflected in private debt returns.
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White papers
Super Tuesday points to a super-charged battle
“A Trump-Biden rematch looks likely in November. As we move closer to the elections, market uncertainty will rise given the candidates’ divergent approach to foreign policy and geopolitics.”
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White papers
2024 Private Markets Outlook: Compelling opportunities amid a liquidity crunch
After a challenging 2023, we think that institutions who can be a provider of liquidity to others or have the flexibility to deploy additional capital will be able to take advantage of some unique and compelling risk-return opportunities in 2024.
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White papers
Enter the dragon: Why China is competitively positioned
There are several reasons to remain constructive on China, in our view. We believe that pessimism about China’s fortunes and the wider economic outlook, resulting in the current idiosyncratic sell-off, presents opportunities for active investors to find great companies at very attractive valuations.
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White papers
India in 2024: a trio of new positive catalysts
2024 will undoubtedly be a year of weaker global growth, largely led by the US and China. Yet we believe the combination of 1) a US soft landing, 2) slowing global inflation and 3) global monetary easing will mean riskier assets perform better. We believe strong returns are possible for Asian equities, especially when GDP growth projections are much higher for Asia ex Japan than for developed market peers.
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White papers
Is US job creation as strong as it looks?
The latest US inflation report showed signs of inflation falling at a slower pace than expected. Inflation data have disappointed twice in a row and are seemingly consistent with firm US employment and wage growth. In this weekly edition of Simply put, we consider what constitutes a strong employment report and how expectations are coloured by what many market participants consider to be normal.
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White papers
A Second Trump Presidency? Potential Economic Effects
President Trump could win the 2024 presidential election. When the incumbent presidential party presides over an improvement in the unemployment rate, it is likely to be returned to power. With unemployment at historic lows, unemployment is likely to get worse, creating headwinds for a Biden re-election.